Following up on my article from this past May on the topic of handicapping the early portion of the NFL regular season and the associated importance of Pythagorean Win Percentage: here are another 2 systems that play exclusively on games before Week 4.
When it comes to handicapping NFL games in September, there are really only a handful of stats from the current season that are truly meaningful, in addition to an assortment of variables from the team’s previous season that also are fairly predictive in nature.
The first situation I would like to explore involves a key stat from a team’s previous campaign: Season Fumble Differential (FUMD), which is calculated by subtracting opposition fumbles minus fumbles against. Obviously, a positive differential means the team in question was luckier-than-average while a negative differential signifies the opposite.
I use the word ‘luck’ above because fumbles are just that: a lucky or unlucky occurrence (depending on which side you’re on) that affects good teams just as often as bad ones. This undeniable fact creates a situation that the astute bettor can profit from.
Basically, an opportunity for profit exists here because the typical bettor usually doesn’t dig very deep to actually find out why a team may have had a losing or .500 record in the past season–and for teams with a FUMD
For this very reason, teams entering a new season that had a negative fumble differential in the previous one are an excellent wager against the spread thanks to the bias that ‘square’ bettors may have against them, based on their perceived ‘under-performance’–a bias that will show up in the form of an advantageous line for the team in question.
Since 1994, these ‘value added’ teams have been a stellar 194-143 (57.6%) ATS in Week 2 and 3 of the following season, creating a profit of $3,670.00 betting $110 to win back $100.00 in each case.
What’s more, if you go one step further and also stipulate that this team is entering Week 2 or 3 off a home game, this situation jumps to an incredible 120-60 (66.7%) ATS based on these 3 conditions alone!
For those that want to take things even further, by eliminating underdogs of >= ten details and groups coming off possibly a Monday Night Time online game, or, again-to-again directly-up wins of >= seven factors, we’re left accompanied by a predicament which could possibly be 104-37 ATS (73.8%) mainly because 1994.
For the many specifics on this pattern (#21), please scroll into the bottom.
Up Coming up, we now have a product (#33) that appears at a vital statistic from Full Week one for the frequent year: Time of Possession For (TOPF) that’s been a strong predictor of unfold leads to the next full week.
TOPF is really a beneficial stat thru-out the period, but, it truly is more effective at foreshadowing distribute-winners inside early section of the year, when bettors potentially excessive stock in much more apparent indicators of staff perform, for instance factors scored and permitted.
Looking at which groups won or misplaced in Full Week one will not be practically as valuable as looking at which teams were able to control the clock even if they eventually went on to shed the game.
How critical is TOPF at this juncture? This situation will illustrate what I am talking about: Since 1994, teams entering Full Week two that had a greater TOPF than their latest opponent had within their first video game, really are a rewarding 123-93 (56.nine%) ATS. dependant on this a single issue, you’ll have used household $two,070.00 wagering $110 to acquire back again $100 on every sport.
So, if Miami were to play Cincinnati in Week 2 and the Dolphins were coming off a sport by which they controlled the ball 33 minutes, while the Bengals only had the ball 29 minutes in their period-opener, we’d possess a perform to the Dolphins. It’s that hassle-free.
TOPF in essence will help to illustrate which groups are certainly ‘on their video game’ coming from the pre-period, or on the particularly least, appear to be much more on their sport than the group they occur to become facing in Week 2.
Ultimately, it bodes effectively for the staff when they demonstrated an capability to maintain prolonged drives on offense in Full Week 1, or their defense was in a position to keep their opponent off the area generally, no matter whether these aspects led to a win or not.
Now, as always, there are a couple of other interesting conditions that can be added for the logic of the trend which raises its prospective for massive earnings drastically.
If we go on to eliminate any games in which the opponent from the team while using TOPF advantage happened to put on a decent show offensively in Week 1, by using a rushing yardage complete of > 125 yards, or, complete yards of a great deal increased than 350, the document of this case then jumps to 97-50 (66.0%) ATS mainly because 1994.
If you really need to whittle things down, you can actually also reduce online games where the team while using TOPF advantage had a lot increased than 60 yards of penalties in opposition to in Week 1 and circumstances in which this group is within a Non-Divisional Sandwich (Week 1 Div Opp – Week 2 Non-Div Opp – Week 3 Div Opp). to discover what this does to the historical results, remember to evaluation the stats for program #33 below.
(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A constructive rating signifies a pattern which possibly will be more powerful than standard vs . the line, harmful–weaker than standard. TDIS% is considered the proportion of groups within the league that have been involved in this situation at 1 time or an additional. WT% will be the percentage of teams which have been .500 or healthier and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For increased details, remember to talk to Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Recreation Sheets E-book.)
Strategy #21 Summary
Principal Illnesses (Putting Together Blocks)
1) Week 2 or 3 within the Conventional Year Or So.
2) Past Recreation (LG) was at House.
3) Final Seasons Fumble Differential (FUMD)
Secondary Circumstances (Tighteners)
1) Final Sport not Monday Night (MN).
2) Exclude Back-to-Back SU Wins of >=7 PTS in L2G.
3) Exclude Spread >= 10 PTS.
Method Stats
ASMR: +0.2
House%: 33.3
Dog%: 61.0
TDIS%: 100.0
WT%: 66.0
SPR: +1.two
Prime Groups: BAL(eight); MIN(eight); CLE(seven); GB(seven)
Process Data
All Round (Mainly Because ’94): 104-37 ATS
2007 Period: eight-one ATS
2006 Period: 6-3 ATS
2005 Year Or So: 6-2 ATS
2004 Year Or So: 8-4 ATS
Past 3 Outcome. Decide in Brackets.
2007 WK3–MOTOR VEHICLE 27 ATL 20 (MOTOR VEHICLE -3.5) W
2007 WK3–JAC 23 DEN 14 (JAC +3.5) W
2007 WK3–OAK 26 CLE 24 (CLE +3) W
System #33 Summary
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Week 2 of the Regular Season.
2) Time-of-Possesion (TOPF) in LG greater than their Current Opponent’s.
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude Opponent LG Rushing Yards For (RYF) > 125.
2) Exclude Opponent LG Total Yards For (TYF) > 350.
3) Exclude teams with > 60 Yards of Penalties from (PEYA) inside their LG.
four) Exclude Non-Divisional Sandwich (NDIV).
Model Stats
ASMR: -0.one
Residential Home%: forty.0
Puppy%: 44.two
TDIS%: 93.eight
WT%: 61.one
SPR: -0.seven
Very Best Groups: CIN(seven); WAS(seven); BAL(six); SD(six)
Model Record
Overall (Mainly Because ’94): 72-22 ATS
2007 Season: 3-2 ATS
2006 Season: 9-2 ATS
2005 Season: 7-2 ATS
2004 Season: 5-1 ATS
Past 3 Good Results. Decide in Brackets.
2007 WK2–CHI 20 KC 10 (KC +12) W
2007 WK2–TB 31 NO 14 (NO -3.5) L
2007 WK2–CLE 51 CIN 45 (CIN -6.5) L